This article is one of an increasing number i've seen of late that poses the question - Are social networks all hype and no future? Interestingly, figures for engagement metrics (how long users stay on the site) have been dropping on the big networks (Facebook, MSN, Bebo) over the last year. There is an inevitable wearing off of novelty implicit in these findings, but what if the trend continues? If these networks taper off in their appeal they will become far less appealing as an advertising platform, but what will replace them?
Some commentators feel that for a social network to really appeal, it must be so feature rich that people will pay a subscription for it, thus negating the need to monetise with ad dollars. Others feel that closed social networks are the future. Whatever the end result, it's an area to watch closely over the next year...
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Paying for social networking is an interesting possibility but it will see a massive drop-off rate and won't happen if Google have anything to do with it.
Speaking of Google, watch for a massive upgrade of Orkut. Its open platform for development and integration into such other Google apps such as mail, maps, docs and more will expand out of Latin America and start to rival the likes of MySpace, Bebo and FB over the next 18 months.
The future looks to not be social networking alone. Maybe it's a hybrid of what we see now and a personalised online platform allowing people to socialise, work, play (the integration of an online presence with Xbox Live and the PlayStation Network) and learn. And users can do all this without leaving their own personal sand-box.
The current landscape is heading for serious change.